Environmental, social and governance (ESG), cybersecurity and other emerging risks have become more relevant to our core business of credit and risk management, evidenced by increasingly and at times stark event-driven impacts on businesses and the communities they support.. (53), U.S. Public Finance The Companys common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol MCO. Recipient email addresses will not be used in mailing lists or redistributed. (9), High Yield Interest Contact: Charlotte Needham Manager, Senior Director - Ratings Performance Analytics +1-212-908-0794 Fitch Ratings, Inc. Hearst Tower 300 57th St New York, NY 10019 Jake Han RiskCalc v3.1 does a good job of predicting actual default rates. About. From September 2009 to October 2012, Mr. Serafin served as General Manager at Tellme Networks, Inc., a telephone-based applications provider, following its acquisition by Microsoft Corporation. Over the course of the year, we have executed on those priorities, investing in capabilities to better serve a broader range of customers and accelerating our ambition to be the leading global provider of integrated perspectives on risk. He served as Senior Managing Director, Global Ratings and Research, of Moodys Investors Service from November 2000 until November 2001 and as Managing Director, International from 1996 to November 2000. (2), Lithuania (9), Iran Looking back on my first year as CEO, I am enormously proud of the tremendous dedication and resilience of our employees as we delivered for our stakeholders through yet another year of the pandemic. (1), Illinois Ms. Alsop holds a B.A. Financial specialist with 5+ years of experience across quantitative research, macroeconomic analysis, and data science. Expansive Dataset: Includes more than 800,000 individual debt securities, both corporate and sovereign entities, and default history starting from 1920. Please reduce your list by using the filtering tool to the left. (6), Iceland In this new report, Moody's forecasts that the rate will peak at 7.3% in March 2021, and then decline to 4.7% by December. (1), New Technologies He also is a member of the advisory committees for Finance and Audit at OnePulse Foundation. Ms Seidman currently serves as a director of General Electric (2018-present), where she has served as the Audit Committee Chair since April 2019, and is also an advisor to Idaciti, Inc., a start-up fintech company (2017-present).Ms Seidman brings regulatory and financial expertise to the Board. (2), Albania Despite the severity of the 2020 recession, the current default cycle will peak at a lower rate than those associated with the last three recessions. (2), Serbia Mr. Fauber has also served as Head of Moodys Corporate Development. Weekly Market Outlook Markets, Bankers and Analysts Differ on 2021's . (2), Mauritius He began his career in the investment banking division of Credit Suisse First Boston. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER.ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK.All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Sector in-depth Refinancing risk rises for US companies as maturities peak, interest rates increase, economy weakens All rights reserved. Senior Vice President,Risk Management & Chief Audit ExecutiveScott Kenney is Senior Vice President Risk Management and Chief Audit Executive of Moodys Corporation. This increases for the lowest investment grade credit rating 'BBB-' to 2.84%. Additionally, DRA publishes analytical research reports on topics that are of interest to broader fixed-income markets community.. The rating scale used by Moody's is: Rating Scale of Moody . Earlier in his more than 30-year financial services career, he held senior positions with Deutsche Bank, Wasserstein Perella Group and Kidder Peabody & Co. Mr. Van Saun has served on a number of boards in both the U.S. and the U.K. (6), Solomon Islands (2), Bahrain (2), Estonia Default, Transition, and Recovery: The U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate Could Reach 7% By December 2021 Ratings Performance Analytics: Nick W Kraemer, Jon Palmer, Kirsten R Mccabe Research Contributor: Shripati Pranshu Sector Default Transition & Recovery View Analyst Contact Information Table of Contents Key Takeaways 4 Moody's Rating Methodology PDR Definition and Proposed Methodology Like Moody's long-term security ratings, corporate family ra tings (CFRs) are opinions about expected credit loss rates, i.e., the family's likelihood of default times its estimated average loss given default (LGD) over a blend of time horizons. Howell serves as a chief financial officer and treasurer of a major business management consulting firm, which allows him to bring an extensive executive leadership experience and business management expertise that span over a number of industries and both domestic and international markets. 2023 Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their affiliates and licensors. METRICS AND TARGETS 10 SCOPE 2 GHG EMISSION REDUCTION 10. (2), Eswatini Previously, Mr. Hogan held the role of EMEA Regional Controller from June 2013 to September 2016; and from July 2010 to June 2013, he held various senior roles within the Finance organization. He currently serves as a member of the Board of Trustees of Lehigh University since rejoining the Board in July 2020 after previously serving from 2011 to 2017. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. Announcement: Moody's appends Belk's Probability of Default rating of Ca-PD with LD designationGlobal Credit Research - 04 Feb 2021New York, February 04, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody . Ms. Global speculative-grade default rate to peak at 7.3% in March before declining to 4.7% at year-end, Number of defaults likely will fall over the course of 2021, as economies recover. (2), Kyrgyzstan As shown in Table 1 below for non-financial corporates domiciled in North America, the three major common drivers of a score that is worse than 'b-' are as follows: Table 1: Main Drivers of weak credit assessment for North American non-financial companies. If these default rate forecasts crystalize, the pandemic induced default cycle will be relatively mild comparing with prior recessionary default cycles whose peaks ranged from 9.7% to 13.3%. She also held various leadership positions across the organization including roles in Business Process Management and Ratings Operations, Investor Relations, Structured Finance Surveillance, Public Finance, Business Planning and Revenue Accounting. The bar chart shows how the performance of the Portfolio has varied from year to year. (1), New Hampshire She moved to the Commercial department in 2011, to focus on Structured Finance business development, including secondments to both the Hong Kong and New York offices.She also spent time in the Product Management Group with global responsibility for product related requests and initiatives linked to Structured Finance and investor requested products.Prior to joining Moody's, she was a Director at Lehman Brothers, specializing in Structured Finance origination and structuring. From 1987 to 1996, Ms Seidman served as Vice President, Accounting Policy and in other roles at J.P. Morgan & Company, Inc. (now JPMorgan Chase) and from 1984 to 1987, Ms Seidman served as an auditor for Arthur Young & Co. (now EY). He is an actively involved diversity and inclusion leader and business partner, with a passion for creating a high performance and transparent culture, developing talent and fostering employee growth. 2021 Moodys Corporation, Moodys Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODYS). Loss given default (LGD) measures the expected loss, net of any recoveries, expressed as a percentage and will be unique to the industry or segment. Mr. Kapusta holds a Masters Degree (LL.M.) (2), Algeria (7), Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) (2), Cyprus (1), New York (2), Botswana (6), Japan (2), Eritrea We introduced the firm's default heterogeneity into the model, and each firm's actual past default situation was considered for Bayesian estimation. 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