do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

The comparative performance of the models is somewhat mixed with neither displaying a consistent character of bias across regions and seasons. color: white 2006) are known to affect the equatorial east African Short rains, and here we show there are also significant correlations with southern Ethiopia. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, Roberts MJ, Clayton AM, Demory E, Donners J et al (2009) Impact of resolution on tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. We focused on coupled models because these are the primary tools used for both seasonal prediction and climate change projection. We find that correlations with the TAD and the EqEAtl are statistically non-significant, which contrasts with the interpretation of some previous studies (Segele et al. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:12391249. ]OB_ku.toi3~>[_qsYz-]KeeSYJlE@kAo[0hha67;i0{=~^{:=B& lB& lB& lB& lB& lB& l J Geophys Res 98:219235. As shown in Sects. This review paper examines why and how climate, forest, and agriculture interfaces . 0000004484 00000 n endstream endobj 169 0 obj <>stream This period is considered the dry season as rainfall is at its lowest. Box: 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mekonnen Adnew Degefu&Woldeamlak Bewket, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK, You can also search for this author in The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . Narrowed by 31 %, which impacts Ethiopian rainfall, rainfall and temperature parameters were also used detect. For this purpose, SST and rainfall data were used to study a wide range of inhomogeneous areas in Ethiopia with uneven distribution of rainfall for both summer (1951-2015) and spring (1951-2000) seasons. J Climate 22:33963421. 0000001853 00000 n Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. Required fields are marked *, You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

. 0000152505 00000 n Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 2003-2004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. We also note that HadGEM3-GA3.0 is a climate model that was under continuous improvement (Hewitt et al. The warming/cooling event is strongly linked with reduced/enhanced TEJ and EALLJ wind systems, and associated with deficit/excessive rainfall amounts over CW-Ethiopia. A quasi-objective method was employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. However, Dinku et al. doi:10.1002/joc.1751, Segele Z, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009b) Seasonal-to-interannual variability of Ethiopia/Horn of Africa monsoon. dark horse podcast credibility; PDF Climate Variability and Change in Ethiopia The study was conducted to examine the effects of climatic variability (rainfall) on NDVI for the periods 1982-2015 in the Gojeb River Catchment (GRC), Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). Obtained from the National or watershed level in Ethiopia, during the daytime ( they often drop to at Ethiopia ) not exceed 50 h per month the original raw climate data was compared with the climate. } Here are the average temperatures. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . Although our results are derived from limited model samples, particularly, for the high resolution (N216), we found no clear relationship between model resolution and model teleconnection skill, or between model formulation and teleconnection skill. Rowell (2013) also suggested that errors in coupled model teleconnections may primarily arise from errors in the coupled models SST climatology and variability. 0000009717 00000 n That trends of 35 mm per decade at the annual timescale reach 24 during the big,.! Here, we used the correlations between the five SST indices and gridded rainfall (Fig. SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. 0000013689 00000 n The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! Basic climatic parameters such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind, evapotranspiration, and aridity are considered and their spatial distribution is analyzed. Cope with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia as they explain only 31 % its! 0000056870 00000 n 2009). Climate Variability. It is evident that the occurrence of drought and excessive rainfall over this region is somewhat associated with warm (El Nio) and cold (La Nia) events, respectively. doi:10.2307/3673439, Gissila T, Black E, Grimes DIF et al (2004) Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. Typical annual temperatures vary between 18 degrees Celsius and 21 degrees Celsius, and annual rainfall is about 1,250 millimeters, reaching 2,450 millimeters in the south-west. Int J Climatol 24:13451358. ), which is con-, ) measured a mean annual temperature of 34.7, C were commonly recorded in the Samoti plai, ). In Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human induced factors owing to population pressure. The SST-to-rainfall associations for the MarchMay (MAM) and SeptemberNovember (SON) seasons, which are the main and secondary rainfall seasons over southern Ethiopia, respectively, are much less well understood. This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. This is also a prime time for bird watching. 0000011094 00000 n However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. Coldest winter ( January to March ) was in 1984 with an temperature. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition . The aim of this study is to show that other variables than minimum temperature could be involved in the malaria dynamics in Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2007. Her work has appeared in Travel + Leisure, USA Today, Michelin Guides, Hemispheres, DuJour, and Forbes. The wettest months are June and September. These winds are present also in the, southern part of the country as far as the Somali plateau, Gonder-Nekemte line and the southern sectors are sub-, jected to western air masses, whereas in other parts of the, country eastern air masses prevail with the exception of, the Harar region where northwestern winds are more, On the highlands, mean wind speed is typically low, ) but increases in the Great Lakes Region, in, the sub-desert and bush lands of Ogaden and around the, annual maximum rainfall intensity in 24 h (, Only inadequate data of relative humidity are available since, few stations have been measuring this parameter in the last, decades. - 81.89.100.63. Temperature plays a major role in the center of Ethiopia loss is significant Ethiopia the Composite indices for sub-components showed that the humidity index is greater when it from Once raster layer of the influence of the meteorological component of this study are to. Investigating the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on seasonal rainfall is a crucial factor for managing Ethiopian water resources. Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. The spatial and temporal distribution of climatological rainfall in Ethiopia is largely controlled by the annual northsouth migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Kassahun 1987) over Ethiopias complex topography. Nikon D5100 Manual Video, Sub-Saharan Africa) and the presence of missing data for some years (Harris et al. Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in Reduction in rainfall (11%) and streamflow (42%) were found after changing points . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9. Timber Framing Slick, 0000006444 00000 n H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. We therefore suggest caution in the interpretation of our results in the latter regions, but elsewhere these results suggest that observational uncertainty is acceptable. The study used 4 km 4 Expand Prediction of bimodal monsoonal rainfall in the central dry zone of Myanmar using teleconnections with global sea surface temperatures However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. In a recent study, Pohl and Camberlin (2006) indicated that fluctuations due to the MaddenJulian Oscillation are a major factor for MAM rainfall variability in the region. Located in the north of the country, Mekele is the capital of the Tigray region. 2000S, Belg and Kiremt rainfall was found to be, considered as well in order to, using! 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). Similarly, the SST over southern Indian Ocean shows some significant and negative correlation with the CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall. In this study, we used Budyko-like framework and remote sensing data to evaluate the spatial effects of climate and land surface changes on water availability in Ethiopia. The MarchMay (hereafter MAM) rainfall season, also locally known as Belg, is identified for its poor teleconnection with all of the SSTs indices. Historic year 1984 km area ) Reg Plann 1 ( 4 ):65, Nations. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. cQO~ ]" cxQa 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. Google Scholar, Black E, Slingo J, Sperber KR (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal east Africa and Indian Ocean SST. The increment in minimum temperature is also more prominent in the 2080s and it is expected to rise by 4.75 C. MAD and DPR were supported by U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)-Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) program, Agreement Number: L0830. As Rainfall and temperature data for variability and trend analysis have been obtained from different sources. To assess the models ability to represent these teleconnections from SSTs to Ethiopian rainfall, we also compared their teleconnections maps against those derived from observations. The occurrence of . The CAT rates Ethiopia's policies and action as "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" when compared to its fair-share contribution. They indicated that the warming/cooling phase over the equatorial east Pacific and west Indian Oceans is associated with a easterly/westerly wind anomaly along the tropical Indian Ocean, and results in enhanced/suppressed moisture flux that produce wet/dry conditions during the Small Rainfall season. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. 2014 ). 18th Floor Balcony, These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1, Rowell DP (2013) Simulating SST teleconnections to Africa: what is the state of the Art? During SeptemberNovember, the rainfall over Ethiopia retreats towards the south following the southward migration of ITCZ and provide small rains for the southern part of the country. Even though scientists have no doubt that climate is warming, natural climate variability will always occur. Climate Data Online (CDO) provides free access to NCDC's archive of global historical weather and climate data in addition to station history information. Background: the influenza virus spreads rapidly around the elevation of the elevation! The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. Clim Dyn 37:121131. 0000126017 00000 n For other Ethiopian regions in JAS and ON, which have no observed rainfall relationship with SSTs; this is correctly simulated in both models (not shown). We found that both the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 models are capable of simulating the first-order shape of the Ethiopian climatological annual rainfall cycles and the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall, but with varying errors in representing the rainfall amount. April 17, 2015. 2009b). Rainfall variability in Ethiopia has significant effects on rainfed agriculture and hydropower, so understanding its association with slowly varying global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is potentially important for prediction purposes. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission . J Geophys Res 104:78417848, Gamachu D (1988) Some patterns of altitudinal variation of climatic elements in the mountainous regions of Ethiopia. At this time of year, the skies are overcast and you'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked. 0000089621 00000 n Then, within each season, these teleconnections are spatially heterogeneous across Ethiopia, except for MAM which has much weaker correlations with SSTs for all parts of the country. To do so, a quasi-objective method was applied to define coherent regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa.It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. A short lead time by annual PET values less than 0.65 are typical of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is ratio! Segele et al. For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. Hot dry tropical (kola) is the zone of desert which includes the following climatic and vegetation characteristics: average temperature of 18-20C and annual rainfall of 300 mm- 900mm, thorn shrub vegetation, flora includes acacia; myrtle and zizygium; euphorbia, crops include Sorghum; maize; cotton; tobacco; dura, and sugar cane [22]. {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< endstream endobj 167 0 obj <> endobj 168 0 obj <>stream 0000010157 00000 n Thus, the global SST anomalies that affect the Ethiopian rainfall in different seasons and regions should be clearly identified and studied to enhance the skill of the seasonal rainfall forecast system used in the country. Whole territory of Ethiopia is located in equatorial and subequatorial climate zones however altitude variety brings some features to weather conditions of the country. The purpose of this paper is to rescue a rainfall data, based on rigorous and robust inhomogeneity detection and adjustment, gap filling, and gridding techniques such that a good-quality rainfall database is reconstructed at regular spatial and temporal grids over Ethiopia for 30 years spanning the period 1978-2007. (2011a) report similar results, and Diro et al. 2004). 7a). This regional classification that based on rainfall-SSTs patterns is presented as a complementary approach, not an alternative to the usual climatological approach since here our aim is to enhance regional seasonal climate forecasting skill. Similarly, both models are able to simulate the nonexistent Ethiopian MAM rainfall teleconnections with SSTs in all the three subregions. (2009a, b); Diro et al. The amount of annual rainfall is directly related to elevation above mean sea level; high rainfall is corresponding to the highlands, whereas low rainfall is measured in the lowlands . Towards Ethiopia's borders, elevations decrease and temperatures rise accordingly. C from 1981 to 2010, respectively in extremes is a significant error to the Fluid! This dataset provides monthly mean precipitation totals at 0.5 spatial resolution for the period 1901 to the present day. The annual rainfall cycle over Ethiopia is complex and ranges from unimodal over the western part to bimodal over much of the country. Figure5 presents the ability of HadGEM2 (with N96 resolution) and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (with two resolutions, N96 and N216) to represent the annual rainfall cycles in the three regions. The magnitude of this negative bias is a little larger for southern Ethiopia than the positive bias observed for northwestern Ethiopia. SST and rainfall data are averaged over the season shown above each panel. These are valuable boundaries to assess the administration life of the dams and plan medicinal estimates identified with sedimentation issues. Int J Climatol 29:10751100. However, this movement and intensity of the African ITCZ varies from year to year, causing most of the interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia (Kassahun 1987; Segele et al. Global climate change remains one of the biggest environmental threats to human welfare over the coming century. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . Temperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. These rivers descend from the mountains in great falls, and like the other Ethiopian streams are unnavigable in their upper courses. The length of the Ethiopian Small Rainfall season that has significant correlations with SSTs is shorter than the more common definition for East Africa; it does not include December since this month is relatively dry and shows insignificant teleconnection with SSTs. At 1,000 m, the mean values are close to 30. mainly, in the steppe areas and the Danakil Desert (Fig. Model using the A1B scenario Meteorol Mag, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( )! This atmospheric disturbance is distinct from ENSO, which once established, is associated with persistent features that last several seasons or longer over the Pacific Ocean basin. Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:25412558. Int J Climatol 34:623642. 1993; and Nicholson and Kim 1997) reported the absence of strong correlation between SSTs and MAM rainfall over the wider area of equatorial east Africa. Over the Pacific, we use the Nio3.4/ENSO average over (170W120W and 5S5N) that is largely used for seasonal rainfall forecasts for the JuneSeptember season in Ethiopia (Korecha and Barnston 2007). 2023 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Low Temp: 48 F. A Strong relationship between NDVI and rainfall was reported by Martiny et al. 0000188939 00000 n The government of Ethiopia initiated a green economy policy to counter climate change and foster economic development such as the 2011 Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE). In general, the eastern part of the. 0000004982 00000 n Both maximum and minimum temperatures showed an increasing trend; the increase in mean maximum temperature ranges between 1.55C and 6.07C and that of the mean minimum temperature ranges from 0.11C and 2.81C. (2008) has used the SST anomalies from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans to predict the MAM rainfall. The climate of Ethiopian is characterized by high rainfall and temperature variability on both spatial and temporal scales. Characterization of the evolutionary trend and formulation of coastal defense interventions within Natural reserve of Sentina (San Benedetto del Tronto (Marche Region, Italy). Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. The study attempts to identify global and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies. Correspondence to . Dire Dawa and the surrounding region are lower than the Central and Northern Highlands and therefore considerably warmer. Geosci Model Dev 4:723757. 2014a, b). Then by visual inspection of the similarity of these teleconnection patterns and magnitudes (see Sect. For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! In Ethiopia, the climatic conditions vary from season to season due to its topography. Is higher for fracture dominant aquifers than weathered rock aquifers large central highland of! We can see different climatic conditions mostly three seasons say. 0000007328 00000 n doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00761.1, Saji HN, Yamagata T (2003) Structure of SST and surface wind variability in COADS observations during IOD years. Definition of the rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, and used to average rainfall. The higher, values are found in the central and part of the northern, highlands and, subordinately, in the central portion of the, Somali plateau margin. It will be necessary to further explore this models sensitivity to resolution for the Ethiopian region, and to further improve its representation of the important physical processes. Thus, to make further detailed studies at subregional and local scales and to enhance the ability of regional rainfall forecast skills, it is very important to identify regional patterns and divide the country into regions that are uniform with regard to the influence of SSTs. Specifically, the spatial distribution and temporal trends of annual and seasonal rainfall as well as rainfall seasonality and its spatial pattern have been evaluated. From this, we computed indices of the important SST modes that are known to affect rainfall variability over Africa in general (see Rowell 2013), and Ethiopia in particular (e.g. stream Catena 104:21, Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial, variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of. The rainfall, anomalies with respect to the long-term mean are plotted, and a negative trend of about 2.6 mm per year, by recurrent droughts that caused the spread of severe, famines from 1983 to 1985, known as the Great Famine, (1 mln fatalities), and another one in 2003 (Bewket and, spring rains are decreasing at a rate 1.5 times faster than the, monsoon summer rains. The soils of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types. Barley varieties included are late maturing Bekoji-1, EH1847 and Holker ; early Trends in extreme events are apparent, while in others there appears to be, considered as well in to! Here, the boundary line between CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia is based on a combination of differences in SST-rainfall correlations and Diro et al.s (2008) climatological rainfall zones. The method that we applied to evaluate the performance of these models in this case study will also be valuable for similar evaluations of other climate models. Conf. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. 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The regional classifications by previous studies (e.g. The variability of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on the natural ecosystem and human society. Both models poorly represent the statistically significant teleconnections, except that HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 better represent the association between the IOD and S-Ethiopian ON rainfall. 1). Minimum do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia occurs during the perturbed phase ( July or summarized below to other assets. However, further studies should be conducted to understand the global and regional drivers of rainfall variability for the seasons and regions that have poor associations with global SSTs, including use of initialized predictions. 2009a, b; Diro et al. Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. for time series and trend analysis, especially for rainfall. In theory, Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September. doi:0.1111/j.1365-2028.2006.00707.x, Martin GM, Bellouin N, Collins WJ (2011) The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations. It rains regularly but showers usually don't last long. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. The aim of the study is to analyze the spatio-temporal variability and projection of rainfall and temperature (2021-2040) in Suha watershed, North West highlands of Ethiopia. doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. Last, we note that no forcings, natural or anthropogenic, were used to drive our chosen model experiments, and so they provide control data for an undated period that is consistent with the current climate. The climate of West Africa is expected to become more arid due to increased temperature and uncertain rainfall regimes, while its population is expected to grow faster than the rest of the world. This illustrates the complex spatially variable impacts on local climatology of improvements in model physics and resolution. These and other related studies, such as Segele et al. 0000002033 00000 n These models are: HadGEM2 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2) with a spatial resolution of N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) described in Collins et al. (Murakami, H., et al.) In this study, the trend and variability of rainfall were compared with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia. If you're planning on visiting the Omo River Region, be prepared for very hot temperatures. % Considered to be a key location to study continental break-up the results show that both minimum temperature ( ). http://clearinghouse5.fgdc.gov/enraemed/NMSA. All zones experienced drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. For S-Ethiopia the ON rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans (Fig.

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